US Colleges Face a Shrinking Student Pipeline

The number of high school graduates peaked in 2025 and is projected to decline 13% through 2041, according to Nathan Grawe, professor of economics at Carleton College. Regional colleges with limited endowments face particular pressure from this demographic shift. In response, institutions are cutting programs, competing more intensely for students, and emphasizing affordability and return on investment. Inflation-adjusted tuition at public four-year colleges has fallen 7% over the past decade.

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