Predicting the World Cup Champion Using Macroeconomics

A Bond Vigilantes team at M&G Investments developed an economic model that predicted France would defeat Morocco 2-0 in a FIFA World Cup round-of-32 match, a prediction that proved correct with goals from Kylian Mbappé. The model has correctly predicted 15 of 16 outcomes in the round of 32. Carlos Carranza, Senior Emerging Markets Debt Fund Manager at M&G, discussed the economic model's methodology with Bloomberg.

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