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Ars Technica

Hegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troops

Friday, October 23, 2026


Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued a memo warning that prediction market bets on military operations could compromise operational security and endanger troops. Hegseth stated that such bets may provide adversaries with advance intelligence on U.S. military activities. The memo directed Pentagon personnel to refrain from trading on prediction markets related to military operations and tasked the department with developing new guidelines on the matter.

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