Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after latest setback, Kalshi traders predict

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market placed a 44% probability on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal levels by December 1, 2026, according to market positions as of the article date. Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform where users buy and sell contracts based on real-world outcomes. The assessment reflects current market expectations regarding the timing of shipping normalization through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.

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