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CNBC

How much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not much

Wednesday, September 9, 2026


Prediction market participants can purchase shares to influence the price of a contract reflecting a candidate's chances, according to market mechanics. The cost to shift a market price depends on the market's liquidity and current contract pricing. Academic researchers and market observers have studied how easily prices move in smaller prediction markets with lower trading volumes.

Original reporting: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/prediction-markets-election-kalshi-polymarket.html

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