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Wired

Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town

Sunday, July 5, 2026


Prediction markets allow users to wager on whether wildfires will occur in specific locations. Some wildfire survivors have opposed these markets, citing moral concerns. Survivors have also expressed concern that such markets could create financial incentives for arson. As of the article's reporting, these markets operate on platforms that allow trading based on wildfire outcomes in designated areas.

Original reporting: https://www.wired.com/story/prediction-markets-let-you-bet-wildfire/

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