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NPR

What a fake poll reveals about worries around prediction markets and the midterms

Friday, August 28, 2026


A fake poll circulated ahead of the midterms raised concerns among election officials and market monitors about potential manipulation of prediction markets. No evidence emerged that the fake poll was designed to move betting odds, but officials said they are monitoring prediction markets for coordinated efforts to influence their prices. Prediction markets allow users to bet on election outcomes and have grown significantly in volume during the 2026 election cycle.

Original reporting: https://www.npr.org/2026/08/28/nx-s1-5945290/fake-poll-meridian-stratgies-kalshi-polymarket

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