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MarketWatch

Prediction markets see a divided government after midterm elections. Here’s how you should trade, Citi says.

Monday, August 17, 2026


Prediction markets reflected increasing odds of a Democratic sweep in the November midterm elections, with Polymarket showing 48% probability for that outcome as of the report date. Citigroup identified a potential bond market rally as a possible outcome under divided government scenarios. The analysis did not specify which bonds or market conditions would trigger such movement.

Original reporting: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/prediction-markets-see-a-divided-government-after-midterm-elections-heres-how-you-should-trade-citi-says-26d429ca?mod=mw_rss_topstories

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