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Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets

Thursday, August 13, 2026


Polls and prediction markets showed inaccurate results in both the Wisconsin and Michigan primaries, according to reporting on the elections. The Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary was the first instance within the week where projections diverged from actual results.

Original reporting: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/midterm-democrats-polling-primary-wisconsin-michigan-minnesota.html

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